Gamecock Football: 2013 Odds

Today, we saw odds listed for both the SEC East and the BCS Championship for 2013.  Below the fold, we’ll adjust those odds for you and provide some brief commentary.

SEC East Odds

Team Odds Adj.
USC +150 28.7%
UGA +150 28.7%
UF +300 18.0%
MIZ +800 8.0%
UT +1000 6.5%
VAND +1200 5.5%
UK +1500 4.5%

These odds are surprisingly low at the bottom, but those at the top make sense.  Carolina has the scheduling advantage in the SEC East this year, with a home-road split for Florida and Georgia and Arkansas and Mississippi State from the SEC West.

Florida has the worst of it, playing at LSU and also playing Carolina and Georgia road-neutral, which hurts their odds.  Georgia gets the luck of the draw from the SEC East, with the Gamecocks at home and Florida in Jacksonville, but they also contend with a game in Athens against LSU.

I’m actually a little surprised not to see Georgia installed as the favorite, as two of their three major games occur in Athens, but the oddsmakers seem to like Carolina’s chances of getting through the division (and perhaps the tiebreakers) in good shape.

BCS Odds

Team Odds

Adjusted

Alabama
3/1
25.00%
Ohio State
13/2

13.33%

Oregon
7/1

12.50%

Texas A&M
8/1

11.11%

Georgia
16/1

5.88%

Stanford
16/1

5.88%

LSU
18/1

5.26%

Florida
20/1

4.76%

Louisville
22/1

4.35%

Clemson
25/1

3.85%

Florida State
28/1

3.45%

Miami
28/1

3.45%

Notre Dame
28/1

3.45%

South Carolina
28/1

3.45%

Michigan
33/1

2.94%

Oklahoma State
33/1

2.94%

Texas
33/1

2.94%

Nebraska
50/1

1.96%

Oklahoma
50/1

1.96%

UCLA
50/1

1.96%

USC
50/1

1.96%

TCU
66/1

1.49%

Wisconsin
66/1

1.49%

Boise State
100/1

0.99%

Michigan State
100/1

0.99%

Oregon State
100/1

0.99%

Mississippi
125/1

0.79%

North Carolina
150/1

0.66%

Northwestern
150/1

0.66%

Virginia Tech
150/1

0.66%

Washington
150/1

0.66%

Auburn
200/1

0.50%

BYU
200/1

0.50%

California
200/1

0.50%

Cincinnati
200/1

0.50%

Georgia Tech
200/1

0.50%

Kansas State
200/1

0.50%

Mississippi State
200/1

0.50%

Pittsburgh
200/1

0.50%

Rutgers
200/1

0.50%

Arizona
250/1

0.40%

Arkansas
250/1

0.40%

Iowa
250/1

0.40%

Tennessee
250/1

0.40%

Missouri
300/1

0.33%

West Virginia
300/1

0.33%

Boston College
500/1

0.20%

South Florida
500/1

0.20%

It should come as no surprise to see the Crimson Tide leading the list of favorites.  Ohio State receives a boost from playing in a preposterously easy division this season, which should help it plow a path to the title game without playing anyone of difficulty (they will likely play only one top 25 team this season, the finale in Ann Arbor).  Wisconsin is down, Penn State is ineligible, the non-conference schedule a joke, and the cross-division games a breeze.  Thank God these guys weren’t eligible last year or we’d still be remembering an Ohio State v. Notre Dame BCS game.

You see South Carolina below Florida and Georgia here, primarily because Eric Hyman kindly left us a road game against UCF to go along with home games versus North Carolina and Clemson.  While I’m not completely against moving up the schedule, these games serve no purpose for our football team except to decrease our chances of winning a championship.  Hyman made a decision (i.e., going to UCF) that was penny wise and pound foolish, and we will look back at it with particular disdain if injuries suffered there (or, though somewhat unlikely, a loss) precludes us from obtaining other goals.

Otherwise, it’s interesting that the oddsmakers have only really found one favorite, and that there is a complete absence of Big XII teams in the discussion for the BCS Championship in 2013 (Oklahoma State chimes in first at 33/1).  I think Oregon and Stanford have boosted odds given the weak nature of the Pac 12, and I think LSU is completely overvalued given they’d have to beat seven top 25 teams (v. TCU, the SECG, and the BCSCG; @ Georgia and Alabama; home to Florida and A&M) to have a chance, not to mention a few other SEC games that could give them fits.

Clemson is 25-1 primarily because some people failed to check their schedule and realize that they have to beat both Georgia and USC this year.  Have fun with that, boys.

Any other interesting lines you see out there?

 

 

 

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About marvinnedick

Blogging from the mid-Atlantic on Gamecock sports, as well as general musings on sports theory otherwise.
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One Response to Gamecock Football: 2013 Odds

  1. Walter says:

    After studying all the data and pondering all the information, I have reached the conclusion that Clemson sucks.

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