On Tuesday afternoon, I watched along with some of you in horror as Chad Holbrook bunted Joey Pankake in the first inning after Carolina put the first two runners on. Holbrook stated ““I wanted to score first today and I told myself that if we get the first two guys on, we’re bunting.”
For many reasons, this was a terrible idea, and bad process led to calamitous results for the Gamecocks. Pankake bunted right back to the pitcher, who whipped the ball to third and recorded the first out of the inning. The Gamecocks would exit the inning 0-0, and though they ultimately scored the first run that Holbrook found so important in the top of the second, it (shockingly) was no more relevant than any of the other runs scored in the game. The missed opportunity in the first, where Carolina went scoreless, wasn’t important because it meant the Gamecocks would be on the board first. It was important because Carolina needed runs to win the game, and the first inning was an opportunity to score those runs. Bad coaching and bad execution cost the Gamecocks, and in a one-run game, could have cost them Omaha.
The purpose of this post is to set a standard for when it’s a good or bad idea to bunt. As Twitter (at least, my account) exploded in anger at the coaching decision, I found myself perturbed that few people were articulating exactly why it was a bad idea. Many thought it made sense to win or lose with your best players, but I wanted to put together a post that we can use as a reference point in the future to understand when bunting is a good or bad decision. So let’s look through the data and then analyze the three bunt calls that Holbrook made yesterday, to see how they hold up based on that understanding.
